Prediction Markets Give Low Odds on US Stake in OpenAI in 2025
Kalshi traders put the chances below 30% that the federal government will acquire equity in OpenAI or Anthropic this year.
Prediction market traders on Kalshi are expressing significant skepticism that the U.S. government will take an ownership stake in leading artificial intelligence companies OpenAI and Anthropic before the end of this year, with odds sitting below 30%, according to data from the platform.
The low probability assigned by Kalshi traders reflects broader uncertainty surrounding Washington's appetite for direct equity investment in private AI firms, even as the federal government has signaled growing interest in maintaining American dominance in the global AI race. Prediction markets, which aggregate the collective judgment of participants who put real money behind their forecasts, are often viewed as a real-time gauge of informed sentiment on policy outcomes.
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Both OpenAI and Anthropic rank among the most closely watched AI startups in the world, with valuations in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Any government equity stake would represent an unprecedented intervention in the private tech sector, raising complex questions about regulatory entanglement, national security considerations, and the independence of AI research and development.
While the current administration has taken a notably active posture on AI policy — including executive orders and infrastructure investment pledges — traders appear unconvinced that direct government ownership of AI firms will materialize within this calendar year. The sub-30% odds suggest market participants view the move as more of a longer-term possibility than an imminent policy action, if it happens at all.
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