Why the S&P 500 May Escape Its Worst Month in 2024
September is historically brutal for U.S. stocks, but a key technical level suggests the S&P 500 could buck that trend this year.
Wall Street is bracing for September, the single worst month on record for the S&P 500, but at least one closely watched trading signal is flashing a more optimistic outlook for 2024. As U.S. equities enter the month, a key technical level is pointing toward potential resilience rather than the steep selloffs that have historically defined this stretch of the calendar.
September's grim reputation is well-earned. Decades of market data show the benchmark index has declined more in this month than any other, making it a period investors traditionally approach with caution. Portfolio managers and retail traders alike often pare back risk exposure as summer liquidity fades and institutional players rebalance their books heading into the final quarter.
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Yet history is not destiny, and market analysts tracking technical indicators argue that current positioning tells a different story. The presence of a critical support level — a price zone where buying interest has historically been strong enough to halt declines — gives bulls reason to believe the index could absorb selling pressure more effectively than in prior Septembers.
The broader context matters here. Market structure, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions all shape how seasonal patterns play out in any given year. When underlying technicals are constructive, seasonal headwinds can be blunted, though they rarely disappear entirely. Traders will be watching closely whether that key level holds if selling does materialize in the weeks ahead.
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